Nietzsche’s Eternal Return and Market Cycles – Would You Trade the Same Strategy Forever?

Imagine this: every decision you make... every trade, every rebalance, every moment of hesitation, you’ll be forced to live again. Not just once, but endlessly. Over and over. Forever.

This is Nietzsche’s thought experiment of the Eternal Return: 

The idea that life may not be linear, but cyclical, and that we should live as if we’d be proud to relive our choices eternally.

For investors, this lens casts a haunting question: If markets move in cycles, and you had to face your portfolio again and again… would you be content with your strategy?

Markets as Eternal Return

Financial markets, like life, are deeply cyclical. Booms follow busts. Bubbles rise and burst. Fear becomes greed, and greed circles back to fear.

• The dot-com mania rhymes with crypto surges.

• The housing bubble echoes through meme stocks.

• Rate hikes, recessions, recoveries; the pattern is familiar, if not identical.

Nietzsche’s Eternal Return forces us to see these not as one-off events, but as endless recurrences. Each time, the actors change, but the play feels eerily the same.

The Weight of Decisions

If you knew you’d be forced to relive your portfolio decisions forever:

• Would you still take that overleveraged bet?

• Would you still panic sell at the bottom?

• Would you still chase hype because “this time is different”?

Suddenly, investing isn’t just about profit and loss, it’s about whether you can stand behind your choices when the cycle comes back again.

Cycles of Strategy

Strategies, too, have their cycles:

• Momentum works… until it doesn’t.

• Value investing falls out of favor… only to return stronger.

• Market timing tempts… but often fails in repetition.

The Eternal Return asks us:

Do you have a strategy that you could live with, cycle after cycle, without regret?

If the answer is no, maybe the strategy is fragile, or perhaps, it’s not truly yours.

Risk, Repetition, and Regret

Here’s the trap: markets give us many chances to repeat our mistakes. Chasing bubbles, overtrading, ignoring risk; the same errors echo across decades.

Nietzsche’s thought experiment invites us to break the loop:

To act not as if each decision is fleeting, but as if it defines us forever.

Investing With Eternal Return in Mind

1. Build Regret-Proof Strategies
Choose approaches that you’d be proud to repeat, not ashamed to relive.

2. Think Long Horizons
If you’ll face the same downturns again, build for resilience, not perfection.

3. Embrace Cycles Instead of Fighting Them
Market swings aren’t anomalies, they’re inevitabilities. Prepare, don’t deny.

4. Align With Values
Invest in ways that reflect who you are, not just what you want to earn.

Final Reflection

The Eternal Return is not a prophecy, it’s a test. A mirror held to our choices, asking:

Would you endure this again? And again? And again?

For investors, it’s the ultimate accountability. If your portfolio decisions feel unbearable to repeat, maybe it’s time to choose differently.

Because in markets, as in Nietzsche’s world, the cycles will always come back. The question is: when they do, will you be ready to face yourself again?

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